@bycelium/evidence-diagrams

Weight of evidence diagram

Add evidence, adjust its illustrative weight, and explore combined weight, dissonance, and color.

Combined weight of evidence: None (0 dBan)

The diagram shows evidence flowing from the prior interval to the posterior interval.

Dissonance 0%
No evidence

Height measures absolute weight. Arrows descend one pixel for every two horizontal pixels.

Evidence

Illustrative weights only; adjust them for the evidence and context. Several reports can repeat the same source. Check whether evidence is independent before combining its weight.

CategoryForAgainst

No evidence

Add an item of evidence.

Prior opinion

Equal bounds represent a fixed prior.

Example scenarios

Color legend

The prior interval sets the width of the gray top. Red, yellow, and green deepen toward the bottom.

Color legend.
#9ca3af

Lower values give stronger colors sooner. The gray top widens with the prior interval. Red and green deepen toward the lower corners; yellow deepens toward the lower center.

How to read the diagram

This calculator illustrates Bayesian updating: evidence updates a prior opinion into a posterior range. Add items to compare the combined weight of evidence with that range.

Decibans
A logarithmic unit for expressing the weight of evidence. Positive values support a claim, negative values count against it, and +10 dBan multiplies the odds by ten.
Priors and posteriors
Set a prior range before adding evidence. The diagram shows the posterior range after the combined weight is applied.
Dissonance
The proportion of absolute evidence weight canceled by opposing weights. It reaches 100% when the weights cancel.